Overview :

Moore et al developed a model for predicting the need for massive blood transfusion in a trauma patient soon after arrival to the trauma center. The authors are from multiple hospitals in the United States and Canada.

Parameters:

(1) Injury Severity Score (ISS)

(2) minimum pH during first hour after arrival

(3) mininum systolic blood pressure during first hour after arrival in mm Hg

X =

= (0.7 * (points for ISS)) - (5.6 * (minimum pH)) - (0.04 * (minimum systolic blood pressure)) + 42.1

probability of massive blood transfusion =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve was 0.8.

Moore F, McKinley B, et al. Need for massive transfusion can be predicted early after trauma center arrival (Abstract). J Trauma. 2007; 62: 270.