Overview :

Halnonen et al developed a prognostic model for predicting mortality for a patient with severe acute pancreatitis based on data collected shortly after admission. This can help identify a patient who may require more aggressive management and closer monitoring. The authors are from Helsinki University in Finland.

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) therapy with cardiovascular and/or anticoagulant drugs

(3) mechanical ventilation during the first 72 hours after admission

(4) maximum serum creatinine within 60 to 72 hours from admission in µmol/L

where:

• Cardiovascular drugs include diuretics, antihypertensive drugs, or digoxin.

• The statement for maximum serum creatinine statement can be parsed in 2 ways (a) maximum creatinine in the interval between 60 and 72 hours after admission and (b) maximum creatinine within the first 60 to 72 hours. I have used the former in the implementation.

X =

= (0.045 * (age in years)) + (0.934 * (points for history of cardiovascular disease or anticoagulation)) + (1.090 * (points for mechanical ventilation)) + (0.006 * (maximum serum creatinine)) - 4.765

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Halonen KI, Leppaniemi AK, et al. Predicting fatal outcome in the early phase of severe acute pancreatitis by using novel prognostic models. Pancreatology. 2003; 3: 309-315.